Financial crisis 'won't impact UK in long term'

Matthew Wilcox our consultant managing the role

Corporate finance workers have endured a difficult time in recent years thanks to the recession, but businesses across the board have recorded improved conditions in 2014 and a new poll has indicated that the economic crisis will not have a long-term impact on the UK’s growth.

The first poll by the Centre for Macroeconomics brings together the views of a wide variety of the nation's economists, making it a useful barometer of the feelings around the UK’s expansion prospects.

Asked if the recent slump would have any impact on British growth rates in the coming years, almost two-thirds agreed that the financial crisis will either have no effect on long-term UK growth rates or simply produce a small negative effect that pushes GDP down by less than 2.5 per cent in total over a ten-year horizon.

Responses were more divided when it came to the study’s other question, which asked if the output gap - a measure of how far the level of output is below the potential level of the economy - was now at three per cent or even larger.

Some 45 per cent agreed with this proposition, which contradicts data published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) indicating that the gap was at 1.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2013.

However, an equal number disagreed or strongly disagreed, many of whom went on to explain that they supported the assertions made by the OBR.

"The global financial crisis has both exposed and contributed to the vulnerability of many financial institutions and markets, as well as that of private and public balance sheets. The UK economy seems to be finally gaining some momentum after years of negative or low growth," said the report.

Many of the economists questioned for the survey expressed their hope that the financial sector will be given the opportunity to grow over the coming years, as it has contributed a great deal to the British economy as a whole and has the potential to keep doing so if given the support it needs.

11/04/16
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